But we don’t live in a perfect world. Far from it.
That means our emotions impact our financial choices more than we realize.1
Shockingly as much as 95% of our purchase choices are made subconsciously, driven by our emotions—as little as 5% are based in logic (and that’s when we’re in a good headspace and feeling comfortable and secure).2
When we’re faced with uncertainty, fear and instinct can take over and push logic right out of the window.3
Ironically, these instincts often make things worse. Emotional reactions can lead to poor choices and the losses you were trying to avoid in the first place.5
The best way to avoid letting your hardwired biases take over? Use these strategies. They can help you fare better in any crisis. They may even make you a savvier investor.
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With many people in Austin facing job losses or furloughs, the CARES Act provides additional flexibility for accessing retirement accounts. However, it’s crucial to consider various factors before deciding how to handle an old 401(k) or employer plan.
This FREE guide is designed to assist investors in managing an uncertain situation by outlining the available options for an old employer plan. Feeling overwhelmed and need personal advice right away? Call 800-840-5946 for a complimentary 1-on-1 phone appointment to discuss your 401k withdrawal strategy and money management concerns.
This FREE Guide reveals the 5 options to revive your old zombie plans!
In a perfect world, logic would always guide our financial decisions. Emotions wouldn’t come into play.
But we don’t live in a perfect world. Far from it.
That means our emotions impact our financial choices more than we realize.1
Shockingly as much as 95% of our purchase choices are made subconsciously, driven by our emotions—as little as 5% are based in logic (and that’s when we’re in a good head-space and feeling comfortable and secure).2
When we’re faced with uncertainty, fear and instinct can take over and push logic right out of the window.3
Your brain will make you want to react quickly to protect yourself and avoid the pain you anticipate from potential losses.4
Ironically, these instincts often make things worse. Emotional reactions can lead to poor choices and the losses you were trying to avoid in the first place.5
The best way to avoid letting your hardwired biases take over? Use these strategies. They can help you fare better in any crisis. They may even make you a savvier investor.
6 SECRETS TO MAKE YOU A SMARTER INVESTOR
1. AVOID THE OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
Overconfidence is a killer. In fact, research shows that the more experience you have as an investor, the more overconfident you tend to be.6
Stay realistic and grounded by a strategy. Get advice before making big decisions.
2. FORCE EMOTIONS INTO THE BACKSEAT
Losing money hurts. The truth is that the pain of losses can actually be more intense than any satisfaction from gains. Economists call that “loss aversion.”7 The pressure of anxiety or uncertainty can lead to irrational choices that actually work against our big-picture financial goals.
Don’t give into fear or panic when they show up. Focus on logic and rely on your professional for guidance.
3. FRAME PERFORMANCE IN A MORE MEANINGFUL WAY
Framing is everything when it comes to evaluating performance. That’s because the way information and events are presented to us can sway our perception and influence our decisions.8
Look beyond short-term outcomes when framing performance. Think about your longer-term goals and the progress you are making towards them, even when short-term corrections slow your progress.
4. NEUTRALIZE YOUR RECENCY BIAS
Recent events usually influence you more than those in the distant past. Why? The human brain remembers recent events more clearly and gives them outsized weight when making decisions. Your brain can mislead you by expecting more of what you’ve seen already. And that can lead to overconfidence and emotional decisions.9
Resist this tendency by remembering the market is constantly changing. Over the long term, bear markets recover. And no bull market lasts forever.
5. CONSIDER MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVES
With decision making, it’s natural to focus on one aspect or one piece of information as a starting point. Often, that can greatly influence your final choice. This is known as “anchoring bias,” which can give you tunnel vision. It can lead you to fixate on a single data point, like an investment’s price, while ignoring other key information.
To fight it, seek out more information. Think critically about multiple perspectives, and don’t forget to consider future potential.
6. SLOW DOWN & TAKE TIME TO THINK MORE DEEPLY
Humans like to make snap decisions. And, when you’re stressed out, you’re far more likely to make impulsive decisions. The problem is that “gut” decisions are made based on instinct, habit, and emotions, instead of logic and facts. When you’re in gut-decision mode, it can be much harder to make goal-oriented choices.10
Take your time when making financial decisions and let your brain shift into analytical mode. With a little time, emotions cool down, and you’ll typically consider more alternatives.11
We can’t foresee or control downturns or upswings. We can only control our mindset, our emotions, and our financial choices.
FINANCIAL LESSON: KEEP YOUR COOL & FOCUS ON THE LONG GAME WHEN CRISIS STRIKES
Markets and economies are never predictable or under our control. We can’t foresee or control downturns or upswings. We can only control our mindset, our emotions, and our financial choices.
That’s easy to lose sight of during periods of economic uncertainty and financial stress.
But, if you can focus on the long game and improve your mental game, you’ll come out stronger and more prepared.
That can make you less vulnerable to hardwired human biases and help you make better financial decisions, no matter what the markets are doing.
As a financial adviser, one of my most important jobs is to help you become a smarter, more capable investor. That involves using psychology and behavioral finance to help you learn more about how your brain works and improve your financial behaviors.
I’m also here to be an objective accountability partner. I talk my clients through emotional decisions, and I can be an important voice of reason and calm when markets are turbulent and it feels like the sky is falling.
If you’re curious about behavioral finance—or if you need a sounding board for a financial decision—I’m here for you. Don’t hesitate to call me at 800-840-5946.
I’d be happy to answer your questions and share some more advice.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. These are the views of Finance Insights and not necessarily those of the named representative or firm, and should not be construed as investment advice.
“If you aim at nothing, you will hit it every time.” – Zig Ziglar
That’s true for most aspects of life, including our finances. Understanding the importance of financial goal setting can be crucial to success. Most of us realize that. It’s why we set New Year’s resolutions—and why more than half of all Americans set some type of financial goal as a resolution each year.1
As great as financial goal setting is, it won’t accomplish much for you if you can’t achieve them. And, maybe not so surprisingly, the vast majority of people (92% according to the research) don’t achieve their goals.2
The Challenge of Financial Goal Setting
Why do we (and I’m including myself here) struggle so much to meet the goals we set for ourselves? Is it because we don’t want to? Because we lack commitment? Not so much.
One big reason behind our failures is that most of us lack a clear connection between our present reality and the future we’d like to achieve. That vagueness can cut the emotional ties to a financial goal, draining the passion and commitment that actually lie within us.3 When we don’t connect to our goals at a deep level, it’s easy to get off track and lose our momentum. This is especially true for long term financial goals, which require sustained effort over time.
So, how can we stay on track to achieve our financial goals?
By reconnecting with the vivid emotions behind them and digging deeper to uncover our inner passions and motivations behind our goals.3 A simple way to dig deeper into the underlying reason for your financial goals is by peeling back the layers and asking yourself “why?” three times. This approach is particularly effective when aiming to meet your long term financial goals.
Unlock the Passion Inside Your Financial Goals by Asking These 3 Whys
1st “WHY”: Peel back the first layer
Start by asking yourself why you have set a specific financial goal: “Why do I want to (obtain this financial goal)?” Financial goals to earn more, save more, or build wealth are usually linked to a deeper desire, like the desire to have more time, more freedom, or an early retirement.
Answer this first question to help reveal the general motivation behind your financial goal. Financial goal setting is not just about numbers; it’s about the purpose behind those numbers.
Still Not There Yet? Keep Asking “Why.”
People are like onions. Sometimes, you have to peel back more layers to uncover the clear vision behind your goals. When you’re able to dig deep and connect your financial goals to your innermost desires, you’ll stay excited about them for the long run. This approach is especially helpful when setting long term financial goals, as it keeps you motivated through the years.
Financial Lesson: Uncovering Your Passion Can Be the Best Motivation for Achieving Your Financial Goals
For most people, financial goal setting takes time to achieve. From spending less to saving more, these goals take consistent effort and action. They can require you to change your habits, make sacrifices, and stay the course for years.
And that’s hard.
But it can be a lot easier if you’re able to stay connected to the “why” and the passion behind your goals. This is particularly important for long term financial goals, which might feel distant or abstract without a strong emotional connection.
Maybe you want more free time so you can enjoy special experiences with your family because you’ve missed important occasions before. Maybe you’re focused on creating a lasting foundation for your children because your family struggled while you were growing up. Perhaps you dream of owning a vacation home where your family can gather because you have fond memories of family gatherings in the past.
Why?
Because, if you’re truly passionate about your financial goals, you’ll stay excited about them for the long run. And that can mean you’ll be far more likely to work harder toward achieving your goals and you’ll be far less likely to give up on them.4
Adapting Your Financial Goals Over Time
Of course, the financial goals you set today can change over time. With age and changing life circumstances, new financial goals can replace the ones you set 5, 10, or even 20 years ago. No matter when or why those goals may change, staying connected to the “why” behind them can go a long way to helping you achieve them. This flexibility is key in successful financial goal setting, especially as it relates to long term financial goals.
If you’re thinking about the “why” behind your financial goals and want to talk about them, give my office a call at 800-840-5946.
I’d love to hear more about your goals, why you chose them, and where you are at in your journey toward achieving them. I have a lot of experience helping my clients with their financial goals, and I look forward to the opportunity to help you, too.
Richard Archer, CFA, CFP®, MBAArcher Investment Management
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. These are the views of Finance Insights and not necessarily those of the named representative or firm, and should not be construed as investment advice.
Life has changed; how do we adapt without losing sight of what we want to achieve?
As you’ve heard me say before, no one knows how the future will play out, but we should still look ahead and think through the consequences of what’s happening. (More about this kind of second-order thinking ahead.)
I believe that our society and our economy are experiencing a massive paradigm shift.
We will never go back to the world we had before COVID-19, and the lens that we used to evaluate ideas, markets, economies, and personal choices over the last decade may not be sufficient for the next decade.
Here are just a few things that I see changing as a result of what’s going on now:
Social Support: 36.5 million Americans have become unemployed in two months, and the effects are rippling through families, communities, and the economy.1 The government has responded with trillions of stimulus dollars to individuals and businesses. More relief is likely to come. What does this mean for our society? Who should get a helping hand in tough times? Will we permanently expand the social safety net?
Work: Thrown into the largest work-from-home experiment in history, more workers and employers will transition to remote work post-pandemic. This shift in work has major implications. Which places will be a draw if workers can live anywhere and employers can have their pick of a nationwide (or global) workforce? Will those who must physically show up demand different compensation?
Education: Students, parents, schools, and universities are being forced to re-evaluate the definition of education (and its price tag) now that the on-campus experience has gone online. What’s missing if you attend from home? How much should education cost? What alternatives to a traditional four-year degree will arise?
Shopping & Entertainment: Brick-and-mortar retailers may never recover from the body blow dealt by pandemic lock-downs. Online shopping, grocery delivery, and digital services may finally overtake offline channels. What will the retail landscape look like when it’s easier (and maybe safer) to eat, shop, and watch at home?
No one has all the answers about the new world and things are not always what they seem.
Though it appears that the stock market has moved past the pandemic, we shouldn’t celebrate just yet.
Why?
Much has changed in the world and we’re still playing out first-order effects. More consequences are coming.
“What are the second- and third-order consequences of this?” is a question big thinkers like Ray Dalio (Manager of the largest hedge fund in the world) ask about complex scenarios.
Here’s what they mean:
First-order thinking is fast and simple: B is the logical outcome of event A.
But then what? What happens as a consequence of B?
And what happens as a result of that? And what is the follow-on effect of that?
Second-order thinking is about interactions and complex systems. It’s slow and hard (but mastering it can put us steps ahead of the crowd).
Understanding the new world that’s growing out of the pandemic requires thinking through these higher-order consequences and developing a new lens to navigate the uncertain waters ahead.
How can we adapt? How can we still pursue our goals in a totally different world?
We think it through with humility and an open mind.
We hone our second-order thinking skills by asking: what could happen? And then what? How likely is it that I’m right? What could happen if I’m wrong? How do I position myself?
We’ll do it together.
COVID-19 is going to be with us for the rest of 2020 and possibly into 2021. So we’re adapting.
At Archer Investment Management, it means we will continue to hold virtual client meetings for the foreseeable future. We are happy to reopen our office once we know more.
It also means big changes in our personal lives. Many of our children will be attending school online through the end of the school year and maybe even this fall.
Our anticipated summer vacation to Disney Magic Kingdom is canceled, but we’re hoping to spend time on Lake Austin instead.
We’re taking it day by day and thinking through those higher-order effects.
How about you? What changes are you making to your plans this summer and fall?
P.S. A number of clients and friends have reached out to talk through options around a potential lay-off, buy-out offer, or early retirement. If this is on your mind, please let me know. We can work through it together.
P.P.S If you’ve got a kid in college this fall, I have a question for you: is virtual university still a compelling offer? Are you and your student considering a gap year or some alternative? Please let me know. I’m interested in learning from your experience.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
It’s been weeks since we shuttered the office and started working from home and, like many, I’m feeling the strain of upended life.
How about you? Are you ready to venture out again? Are you dying to go to the beach like me?
In this article, I thought I’d give you a rundown of some of the latest economic projections, as well as a sneak peek of what post-lockdown life could look like for us soon.
(Ready for a break from COVID-19? No worries. Scroll down to the P.S. for some wonderful distractions.)
On to the economy.
You may have seen a headline showing that U.S. economic growth dropped -4.8% in the first quarter after posting 2.1% growth in Q4 2019. That’s not a surprise.1
Unfortunately, worse news is ahead since widespread layoffs and shutdowns didn’t hit until late March. Here’s a projection of what the next few quarters could look like for the economy.2
You can see in this chart that the coronavirus hit the economy like a tsunami. Q2 could be the worst quarter since the Great Depression.3
The arithmetic of recovering from a 30%+ drop in economic growth means that it could take many months (maybe even years) to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels, especially if we face multiple waves of infection.
Let’s mentally prepare for that.
April 2020 is likely to be one of the worst months for the economy in history; contradictorily, it was also a blockbuster month for stocks.4
Why are stocks so disconnected from the economic data?
Fundamentally, a stock’s price is an attempt to put a value on the underlying company’s earnings now and in the future. Complicating the calculation are factors like fear, greed, uncertainty, and movements in the overall market.
While economic data looks back at what has already happened (or is happening now), the stock market looks forward at the trajectory of the business environment. Framed that way, the rally isn’t so unusual since investors are expecting things to get better, not worse.
Will the rally continue? Hard to say. Volatility is very likely to be the name of the game for months.
Economists are predicting a rebound in Q3 2020. Are they right?
You know by now that we can’t perfectly predict what the recovery will look like; all economic estimates are based on educated guesses about spending, business investment, trade, and other factors. The biggest unknown is “personal consumption” by folks like you and me. Our spending drives 70% of economic growth.
The pace of the recovery depends on how quickly businesses reopen and consumers go out to shop, eat, travel, and spend money. If people don’t feel safe going out or don’t feel confident enough to open their wallets, growth could take longer to come back.
What could life look like as Texas reopens? While America is just now taking the first tentative steps toward reopening, many countries around the world are farther along, offering us a glimpse of what daily life might look like in a world where the coronavirus still remains a threat.5
Hong Kong: Restaurants are open but tables must be spaced farther apart.
South Korea: Pro sports are back but athletes play to empty stadiums. Temperature screening is in place in many buildings.
Taiwan: Schools are in session but assemblies are canceled and students wear face masks in class.
Australia: Beaches are open but sunbathing, picnicking, and large gatherings are verboten.
How long will coronavirus precautions overshadow our daily life? Realistically, some restrictions are likely to drag on until a vaccine or breakthrough treatment becomes widely available.
What do you think? What will our “new normal” look like?
P.S. I promised you some distractions from the coronavirus, and here they are:
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
Are we past the peak? Or just over the first summit of a mountain range?
Are we safe yet?
After weeks of restrictions, it’s easy to feel that we’re swirling in a maelstrom of uncertainty, helpless to make decisions when so much remains unknown and out of our control.
I think that’s normal. We’ve traded a trip on the highway for an off-roading adventure. And we don’t know where it’s going to take us this year.
So let’s lean into the uncertainty. Let’s embrace it and use it to explore and appreciate what really matters.
Our health. Our family, friends, and loved ones. Our home. Our community. Our compassion and creativity. Our resilience as human beings.
As for me, I have some moments of frustration, but I’m staying grounded by learning to cook.
I’m learning a lot about myself. I’ve learned that I might be pretty good at creating sauces. I’ve learned that I’m very bad at making pizza crusts, but I’m humbly trying to get better. Did you know there are more than thirty different ways to bake them and one method even uses a waffle maker?
I’m working on gratitude and enjoying simple things like playing catch with Annie and finally watching the two new Star Trek series.
I’m grateful to have a wonderful home and meaningful work.
I’m grateful to have you.
On the professional side, I’m focused on what I can control on my clients’ behalf and staying abreast of what might come next. My mantra right now is: “one day at a time.”
How are you? I’d love to hear how you are coping. What lessons are you learning about yourself? What have you had the courage to try for the first time? Hit “reply” and let me know.
This pandemic is scary. But it’s also a once-in-a-lifetime chance to hit the “reset” button and connect with the creativity, joy, and good old human ingenuity that can flourish within the limitations of pandemic life.
Eventually, we’ll recover from the coronavirus. It’s not clear yet what that will look like, and we’ll likely see more hard days before we get there. Businesses will reopen, people will go back to work, the recession will pass, and the country will rebuild.
We will heal. But some marks will remain as reminders of our experience.
The Great Depression taught people to clip coupons and “make do or go without.” 9/11 upended our travel rituals and awareness of terrorism.
Some lessons from the pandemic will stay with us long after the immediate crisis fades. Some will be unconscious; maybe we’ll become a society of dutiful hand washers and social distancers.
Others will be lessons we consciously take with us about our values and ability to adapt to circumstances far beyond our control.
I’m hopeful and excited to see what we learn. Let’s make it good.
How has the crisis changed your perspective? What new values and priorities will you bring out of your experiences?
P.S. Do you know someone who is having a hard time and could use some financial advice? I’m holding a few spots open for folks who could use a professional’s help. If you can think of someone, please call 800-840-5946 to let me know.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
Everyone you and I have ever met has been affected by the Coronavirus.
My childhood friends in Indiana, the folks I met in London last summer, and even Brad Pitt.
It’s likely that every human on the planet has been affected by COVID-19.
I’m not sure that this kind of event has ever happened before in human history.
Though it’s sad that it took a disease to bring us together, it reminds me of how deeply connected we all are and how much our daily existence depends not just on our community, but on people we’ll never meet in far-flung corners of the world.
That very interconnectedness is what’s making this pandemic so dangerous to us and the economy.
Economists believe we entered a recession in March, and the latest data continues to show the economic damage:1
Retail sales dropped 8.7%, the biggest drop since the government started tracking the data in 1992.2
Spending on travel, restaurants, and shopping overall is way down (though grocery sales and delivery are up).3
The number of new unemployment claims skyrocketed to 22 million, erasing the job gains since June 2009.4
Despite the ugly economic data, stocks just wrapped their best performance in decades.5What gives?
“Irrational exuberance,” to quote Alan Greenspan. Stocks are famous for rallying in the face of bad numbers, and it’s clear that investors are expecting government stimulus to lead to a quick recovery as states emerge from lockdown and business picks up.
Are bullish investors right? Will the economy recover quickly?
It’s impossible to say right now. How long the downturn lasts and how soon the economy recovers depend on answers to some critical questions:
When will widespread testing, tracing, and treatment allow lockdowns to ease? Reopening America too soon and igniting a fresh wave of the pandemic will prolong the pain.
Will employers maintain relationships with their laid-off staff? You can’t just flip a switch and reopen a closed business without skilled workers. The longer the shutdowns continue, the harder it will be for companies to staff up.
How soon will consumer spending return? “Deferred” demand that’s pent up and just waiting for restrictions to ease could cause spending to surge; “destroyed” demand that’s not coming back could cause spending to remain depressed for longer. Here’s a simple example: deferred demand would be rescheduling a canceled vacation. Destroyed demand would be deciding to skip it entirely.
V, W, L, or Swoosh?
The “shape” of the eventual recovery is being hotly debated because it gives us insight into what would need to happen (and how long it could take).6
“V-Shaped” Recovery: A short, sharp decline and then a quick rebound is the best-case scenario. In this case, lockdowns lift soon and spending surges, driven by pent-up demand and government stimulus.
“W-Shaped” Recovery: A “double-dip recession” is a worst-case scenario that could happen if the easing of restrictions leads to another wave of infections and lockdowns, or the economic damage causes a second downturn.
“L-Shaped” Recovery: An L represents a sudden plunge and fitful recovery if lockdowns continue through the year and growth is slow to return.
“Swoosh-Shaped” Recovery: A tick or swoosh is a sharp downturn followed by a gradual recovery as lockdowns are eased cautiously across the country.
We can’t predict what the road ahead will hold, but I think it’ll look less like a return to “normal” and more like a way to live with the way COVID-19 has overturned ordinary life.
What do you think? Will your life be back to normal this summer?
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
“We celebrated my birthday with a dinner party over Zoom.”
“My officemate jumped on my desk and drooled on my keyboard during a meeting.”
One day, we’ll look back on these strange days and tell stories about the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020.
But right now, we’re getting through it. One day at a time.
How are you doing? What stories can you share with me about your life right now? Hit “reply” and tell me. I’d love to hear about them.
In difficult times, it’s easy to think we are alone. Especially when our loved ones and support system are far away or reduced to virtual connections.
We are all learning how to adjust to a new world and stay grounded when headlines are blaring and our very health and well-being are under threat.
I’m working on being grateful for my blessings in this life.
I’m grateful for the people I get to shelter-in-place with.
I’m grateful to get to spend a lot more time with my daughter, even if it’s doing her homework with her.
I’m grateful for the opportunity to learn to cook. It’s something I’ve always wanted to do, but have never made time for.
I’m grateful that my parents are safe and well.
I’m grateful for work that allows me to help people in my community get through times like these.
I’m grateful for you.
What are you grateful for?
Like WWII and 9/11, we’re living through days that will define future generations and change the very fabric of our society.
I don’t envy the policymakers making grim trade-offs between life, death, and the economy. How long do we socially distance? What about the 10 million+ who have lost jobs?1 Or the businesses that have been forced to close?
I hope with all my heart that each one of them has a financial plan and someone they can go to for advice. But my head knows better. I know that most Americans can’t survive a $1,000 emergency and only 17% have a financial adviser to help them.2
What trade-offs are we willing to make to protect those at greatest risk from the disease? We can’t put a dollar figure on human life. But we can put a dollar figure on the human cost of jobs lost and businesses closed.
The next few weeks are going to be tough for all of us. And I want you to know that I’m here for you.
Layoffs and furloughs are happening and I’m helping affected clients create a game plan to get through the next few months. If this happens to you or someone you love, please let me know immediately so I can help you determine if you’re eligible for special assistance.
My team and I are also working on action plans for multiple economic scenarios. I’ll reach out to you if I think updates to your current strategies should be made.
How do we make good decisions with so much uncertainty and mixed information?
We make a choice:
We can choose to crumble under the weight of fear and uncertainty…
We can choose to simply hunker down and endure…
We can choose to grow, flourish, and come out stronger on the other side. We can be grateful for our blessings and focus on what’s within our control: our mindset, our behavior, and the actions we take.
I am fundamentally optimistic about humankind’s ability to weather this crisis and use it to grow.
I’m optimistic about how our society will adapt and change due to this crisis. Some of the greatest changes and innovations in history grew out of frightening, pessimistic times.
I’m optimistic about the heroes fighting the disease on the front lines.
I’m optimistic about the people helping friends, neighbors, and strangers stay safe and comfortable.
I’m optimistic that those with jobs will continue working to keep this country going while we wait and heal.
I’m optimistic about the innovators staying up late in labs, workshops, factories, and offices around the world to create vaccines, treatments, and tools to beat the virus.
I’m optimistic about the new inventions and technologies that will grow out of necessity.
I don’t know what challenges the world will throw at us in the coming days and weeks. I do know that I am grateful to be surrounded by smart, motivated people who push me to do better.
How can you show up for the people around you? How can you be your best self in these times?
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
Some market strategists are calling the end of the bear market already … do you think they’re right?
(Keep reading to see what could be behind the surge, as well as a breakdown of how the $2 trillion CARES Act affects your wallet.)
But first of all, how are you doing? Are you and your families safe and well?
Our firm has worked virtually with each other and clients for years, so the transition to working from home has been seamless for us. Also, I’ve found that I’m not terrible at home schooling my daughter, but I have to admit I’m glad she’s only in the fourth grade and the hardest topic we’ve had to cover is acute and obtuse angles! I’ve heard it’s very likely that she’ll be home the rest of the school year, so we’re going to have to get into a set weekday routine if we are going to get through all her daily assignments for the next two months.
With markets whipping between rallies and retreats, it’s natural to ask:
Is it time to buy?
Is it time to sell?
Are we near the bottom?
Is the bear market finally over?
Despite the recent market surge, which propelled the Dow 21% higher in just 3 days (technically ending its bear market correction), it’s likely too soon to get overly optimistic.1
What gives? How can markets be rallying when the crisis hasn’t even peaked yet? When markets have fallen so much and “priced in” so much bad news, it’s common to see short-term surges on good news like the relief bill. However, these “head-fake” rallies can be unsustainable when there’s so much uncertainty.
Bottom line: No one is good enough to call the exact bottom of a market. What’s important is looking through the bear market to the other side and picking up opportunities along the way.
Whether the bear market is over or not, we’ve been here before and know what to do.
How worried should I be about a recession?
Cautious, but not panicked. When a $21 trillion economy comes to a screeching halt, there’s going to be an economic contraction. Multiple timely indicators show that we are already experiencing a sharp downturn.2
However, the $2 trillion fiscal rescue act and the Federal Reserve’s new asset-buying program are a double-barreled bazooka aimed at the effects of a serious recession.
We’re monitoring the data rolling in and will know more about how the economy is reacting to the unprecedented aid in the coming weeks and months.
What’s inside the $2 trillion CARES Act? What’s in it for me?
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act is designed to provide relief for individuals and businesses who have been hurt by the outbreak. I won’t try to include all 800+ pages in this email, but here are a few key provisions that you should know about:3
One-time cash payment. Taxpayers are eligible for a one-time direct deposit of up to $1,200 per adult ($2,400 per couple) plus $500 per child under age 16. Amounts are reduced for those who make more than $75,000 ($150,000 if married). If you have filed your 2019 taxes already, the IRS will use that income to calculate your payment; if not, they’ll use your 2018 tax filing.
Better unemployment benefits. The Act will extend and expand unemployment insurance through Dec. 31. Eligible workers (now including self-employed, independent contractors, and gig economy workers) will receive an extra $600/week for four months, on top of what they receive from state unemployment benefits.
Early withdrawal penalty waiver. The Act waives the standard 10% early withdrawal penalty for eligible coronavirus-related distributions from retirement accounts (retroactive to Jan. 1). You’ll still pay income taxes on withdrawals, but you can spread them over a three-year period or use that time to roll the distribution back over.
2020 RMDs suspended. You won’t have to take a Required Minimum Distribution from your IRA or 401(k) this year, leaving you in control of how much you withdraw. If you already took your RMD for 2020, you have several choices: keep it and pay taxes on it, return it to your IRA as an indirect rollover, or convert the amount into a Roth IRA (Roth conversions are permanent).
“Client” means someone who is under my protection, and that extends to your loved ones.
Financial advice is a public service in these times, and I’m here to help. Please forward this email to any friends and loved ones who have been affected by the coronavirus and who might need some help. If you have questions about how the slew of recent changes could affect you, please call the office at 800-840-5946 and we’ll find a time to talk.
Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.
Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged composite index considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends and interest. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. For illustrative purposes only.
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I was quite literally afraid of getting help and of all that it involved. It’s been wonderful. No kidding: best decision ever!
I’m not finance-oriented by any measure, but luck came my way for once and I found myself having enough assets to need some help. Only I didn’t know what kind of help I needed and it’s easy to get overwhelmed quickly and I was on like year number whatever of being overwhelmed and I just kicked that can down the road every year. After a short search, I found Archer’s team and quickly just pushed other options off the table and signed on. They’ve actually been able to simplify things in a way that makes me feel like I can manage my life and not worry about it all for the first time in years. I basically had all eggs, but no basket. Now I have a comprehensive plan from some incredible staff and I actually love the process instead of dreading the matter. Simply put, Archer has changed how I view my own finances and what used to be a cause of stress for me is now a giant sigh of relief. I said in the title it was the best decision ever and I mean it: this has 100% seriously no-fingers-crossed changed my life. If you’re like me and you’ve been debating if you even need this kind of help, then yes… yes, you do!
Scott Eaton
Received via WealthTender: July 10, 2024
Comprehensive financial planning
Working with Emily, Richard, and the team has been great! Their insight has been invaluable for me across a variety of domains. Their approach builds from goals backwards — we met together to outline short and long-term goals and then used those goals to create a plan across a variety of decisions, from home ownership to car insurance to investment and much more. Richard and Emily truly do a great job of drawing me into the loop, ensuring that the financial plan we develop reflects my goals and wishes. Before settling with Archer Investments, I talked with a number of other advisors and none of them had the combination of professionalism, attention to detail, and comprehensive services offered by Archer.
Ben
Received via WealthTender: July 1, 2024
Most thorough and personable financial planners and wealth managers
George and I had been with an investment firm that promised many things they never got to deliver. We are so grateful to have found Archer Investments. Emily,Richard and all of the staff are extremely knowledgeable and so personal. We feel like family to them.We also feel so comfortable with our financial planning that has transpired, feeling confident in our long range plans, short term goals, the security of having ample insurance and medical coverage along with complete documents (POA’s, wills, healthcare POA’s, everything to make any transition smooth for our family). It is a tremendous relief to have everything in place. Their wealth of knowledge and attention to detail is impeccable. We feel so blessed to have found them and highly recommend their comprehensive services.
Andrea & George
Received via WealthTender: April 4, 2024
These testimonials were provided by current Archer Investment Management clients and may not be representative of the experiences of other clients. The clients were not compensated, nor are there material conflicts of interest that would affect the given testimonials. You can view a complete list of reviews at Emily Rassam’s and Richard Archer’s Wealthtender profiles.
